Using Event Risk Classification (ERC) to Best Effect in Aviation SMS
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Sofema Online (SOL) www.sofemaonline.com looks at key aspects of Event Risk Classification (ERC) as a structured method for evaluating the risk associated with safety-related events in an aviation Safety Management System (SMS)
Introduction
By systematically categorizing events based on severity and likelihood and considering visibility. ERC ensures that safety incidents, near-misses, and hazards are properly assessed and prioritized. When applied effectively, ERC supports informed decision-making, resource allocation, and continuous safety improvement.
What is Event Risk Classification (ERC)?
ERC is a tool used to evaluate and assign a risk level to specific events or hazards, based on:
• Severity: The potential impact or consequence of the event.
• Likelihood: The probability of the event occurring again.
The ERC process combines these two factors to produce a risk score (which can be modified by a visibility rating – based on the potential awareness of the Compliance and Safety System to understand the level of exposure, allowing organizations to prioritize risks and allocate mitigation efforts where they are most needed.
Expanding Event Risk Classification (ERC) to Include Visibility
Adding an additional element of "Visibility" to the Event Risk Classification (ERC) framework enhances the ability to identify whether a risk or issue has the potential to be detected during quality or safety audits. This refinement adds depth to the analysis, enabling organizations to proactively address risks that may otherwise go unnoticed until external audits occur.
Defining Visibility
In the context of ERC, Visibility refers to the likelihood that a particular issue, hazard, or failure:
• Can be discovered through quality inspections, internal safety audits, or external oversight (e.g., regulatory inspections).
• Is detectable through existing monitoring systems, checks, or data reviews.
Adding this parameter allows for a better understanding of:
• Risks that are hidden or latent within the system.
• The strength or gaps in the organization's auditing and monitoring capabilities.
Integrating Visibility into the ERC Framework
To incorporate Visibility as an additional factor, update the ERC Matrix to include this third dimension alongside Severity and Likelihood.
Revised ERC Factors
• Severity: The potential consequence of the event or hazard.
• Likelihood: The probability of the event occurring again.
• Visibility: The likelihood that the issue will be detected during audits, checks, or safety reviews.
Establishing a Visibility Scale -The Visibility scale should classify risks based on how detectable they are:
• High - Easily detectable during routine audits, inspections, or safety reviews.
• Medium - Detectable with moderate effort (e.g., detailed inspections, trend analysis)
• Low - Not easily detectable; latent issues requiring in-depth investigation.
Note - Risks that are High Severity, Frequent Likelihood, and Low Visibility require immediate attention because they are both severe and hidden, posing systemic safety threats
• Risks with High Visibility can be prioritized lower because they are easier to detect and control through audits.
Best Practices for Using Visibility in ERC
• Train Auditors and Staff: Ensure safety and quality teams are trained to recognize hidden risks and assess Visibility effectively.
• Create Risk Heatmaps: Visualize risks in terms of Severity, Likelihood, and Visibility to prioritize mitigations.
• Focus on Low Visibility Risks: Treat Low Visibility, High Severity risks as top priority for investigations and corrective actions.
• Enhance Audit Tools: Develop tailored checklists and tools to improve the detection of hidden risks.
• Review Residual Risk: Use Visibility to reassess residual risk post-mitigation to confirm whether risks are adequately monitored.
Conclusion
By adding a Visibility Adjustment Factor, the enhanced ERC table provides a more nuanced evaluation of risks. This allows organizations to:
- Prioritize risks that are harder to detect (Low Visibility).
- Maintain focus on critical events even if they are not immediately visible during routine audits.
- Strengthen audit strategies and safety measures to uncover and mitigate latent risks effectively.
This approach ensures a proactive and systematic method for optimizing risk management within an Aviation Safety Management System (SMS).
Next Steps
Sofema Aviation Services and Sofema Online provide classroom, webinar and online training – SMS Hazard Identification & Risk Assessment - 1 Day. For comments & questions, please email [email protected].